Iran Energy Intelligence — Conflict Risk Map & Scenario Analysis
Free geospatial intelligence published by Didichenko Technologies. Data sources: EIA · Global Energy Monitor · CREA · BP Statistical Review · IAEA · OPEC. Updated weekly.
Iran Conflict Risk Map — 20 Energy Facilities
Iran's most strategically significant energy facility is Kharg Island Terminal, which handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil exports (2.5 million bpd). A disruption at Kharg would remove 2.5% of global oil supply and is the single highest-risk event in the Iranian energy sector.
Tier 1 — Critical facilities (risk score 75–100)
- Kharg Island Export Terminal — 2,500,000 bpd, handles ~90% of Iran's crude exports
- South Pars Gas Field — world's largest natural gas field, shared with Qatar
- Abadan Refinery — 400,000 bpd, Iran's largest refinery
- Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant — hardened underground nuclear facility
- Arak Heavy Water Reactor — plutonium-capable, IAEA monitored
Tier 2 — Major facilities (risk score 45–74)
- Bandar Abbas Refinery — 320,000 bpd, strategic location at Hormuz entrance
- Lavan Island Terminal — secondary export terminal, 200,000 bpd
- Assaluyeh LNG Terminal — primary LNG export facility
- Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant — 1,000 MW, Russia-built
- Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant — primary uranium enrichment site
Risk scoring methodology
Composite 0–100 score per facility: strategic tier (50%), export/production dependency (20%), physical hardening and accessibility (15%), historical strike precedent (15%). Calibrated on the 2019 Abqaiq attack and Iran-Iraq war targeting records.
Conflict Scenario Price Impact Calculator
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is the highest-impact scenario, putting 21 million barrels per day (21% of global supply) at risk and driving estimated oil price increases of $30–80/bbl. A Kharg Island strike is the most likely high-impact single-facility event, with a $8–13/bbl estimated impact.
Scenario estimates (Didichenko Technologies model, 2026)
- Kharg Island strike — 2,500,000 bpd disrupted (2.5% of global supply), recovery 4–16 weeks, price impact +$8–13/bbl
- South Pars strike — 700,000 bpd equivalent disrupted, recovery 8–24 weeks, price impact +$2–4/bbl
- Nuclear sites strike — direct production impact near zero, but risk premium drives +$5–15/bbl
- Hormuz blockade — 21,000,000 bpd at risk (21% of global supply), recovery 2–12 weeks, price impact +$30–80/bbl
- Combined infrastructure strike — 3,500,000 bpd disrupted, recovery 12–32 weeks, price impact +$12–20/bbl
- Full escalation scenario — 5,000,000 bpd disrupted, recovery 24–52 weeks, price impact +$20–40/bbl
Price model: ~$3–5/bbl per 1M bpd disruption (conservative), calibrated on 2019 Abqaiq attack (5.7M bpd → ~$15 spike). Hormuz scenarios carry a regional escalation multiplier. Not financial advice.
Regional Oil Production Comparison: Iran vs. Gulf States
Iran produces approximately 3.2 million barrels per day despite sanctions — less than half Saudi Arabia's output but sustained by 208 billion barrels in proven reserves (third largest globally).
2024 production and reserves snapshot
- Saudi Arabia — ~9.5M bpd production, 267 billion barrels proven reserves
- Iran — ~3.2M bpd production, 208 billion barrels proven reserves, ~1.5M bpd exports (sanctions-constrained)
- Iraq — ~4.3M bpd production, 145 billion barrels proven reserves
- UAE — ~3.5M bpd production, 98 billion barrels proven reserves
- Kuwait — ~2.7M bpd production, 102 billion barrels proven reserves
Sources: EIA, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2024, OPEC Statistical Bulletin.
Iran Shadow Oil Exports — Sanctions Evasion Routes
Iran routes approximately 1.5 million barrels per day through a shadow fleet, with 73% (roughly 1.1M bpd) delivered to China at a discount of $10–15/bbl below Brent crude. The network uses AIS transponder disabling, ship-to-ship transfers, and falsified documentation.
Shadow export network routes
- Iran → China (direct) — ~1,100,000 bpd (73%), shadow fleet via Strait of Hormuz and Indian Ocean
- Iran → Malaysia (transshipment) — ~200,000 bpd (13%), relabeled and re-exported to China and Southeast Asia
- Iran → Syria — ~100,000 bpd (7%), barter arrangements, refined product component
- Iran → Venezuela (exchange) — ~100,000 bpd (7%), oil-for-goods swap arrangements
Sources: CREA Q4 2025 quarterly report, CSIS Iran sanctions analysis, UANI vessel tracking. Estimates, not live tracking.
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